A recent study conducted by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) claims that China’s tactical ballistic missile, the Fire Dragon 480, has the capability to sink a US Ticonderoga-class cruiser patrolling the Red Sea. This revelation comes amidst escalating tensions in the region, where the Houthis, supported by Iran, have been targeting shipping to disrupt supplies to Israel following its operations in Gaza.
The Houthis employ various methods, including ballistic missiles, drones, and anti-ship cruise missiles, which have strained US naval operations in the area. Despite these aggressive tactics, no confirmed damage to US Navy vessels has been reported so far.
In response, the PLA conducted a computer simulation to assess the Fire Dragon 480’s effectiveness against US warships. According to the simulation, a coordinated attack using drones and long-range guided rockets could overwhelm US defenses. Specifically, the PLA’s scenario suggested that approximately six Fire Dragon 480 missiles would be needed on average to destroy a large US warship.
Currently, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group, including the USS Philippine Sea, a Ticonderoga-class cruiser, is patrolling the Red Sea—exactly the type of ship targeted in the PLA’s simulation. Ticonderoga-class cruisers are equipped with two Mk41 vertical launch systems capable of firing over 200 air defense missiles like the Standard 6 and Sea Sparrow.
During the PLA’s simulation, 12 Fire Dragon 480 rockets were launched to attack two Ticonderoga-class cruisers. These rockets initially used low-precision satellite imagery to estimate the positions of the US warships before adjusting their trajectories with onboard sensors. Despite extensive defensive measures, including the activation of the Phalanx close-in weapon system and numerous air defense missiles, one cruiser was simulated to be sunk.
Additionally, an alternative scenario was explored in which eight rockets were equipped with “swarm warheads,” each housing six drones. This tactic aimed to divert defensive firepower and provide precise targeting coordinates for subsequent rocket attacks. This method proved highly effective in the simulation, with experts estimating a near-zero survival rate for the targeted cruisers. The drones used in these swarm attacks had an operational radius exceeding 40km and were described as cost-effective and widely accessible.
The Fire Dragon 480, manufactured by Norinco Group, is marketed as a precise tactical ballistic missile with precision-guided sensors for accurate targeting of moving objects. Its warhead weighs over 400kg, impacting at speeds exceeding 500 meters per second. Chinese researchers claim this capability is sufficient for two missiles to destroy a 10,000-tonne cruiser.
While the Fire Dragon 480 has an advertised range limit of 290km, some sources suggest its practical range could exceed 500km. It was officially integrated into the PLA arsenal in 2019 and is launched from a high-speed mobile platform designed to withstand harsh conditions, enhancing its cost-effectiveness.
The missile utilizes a combination of inertial navigation and global satellite navigation for guidance, ensuring precise targeting with a circular error probable (CEP) of 30 meters.
Despite these claims, defense analysts like Patricia Marins suggest that the PLA’s assertions may be aimed more at provocation than presenting a genuine threat. Marins notes that compared to other missiles like the Chinese CM-302 or the BrahMos (developed jointly by Russia and India), the Fire Dragon 480 lacks certain performance features such as high speed and advanced maneuverability.
In conclusion, while the PLA’s simulation highlights the potential threat posed by the Fire Dragon 480 and drone swarm tactics against US naval assets, skepticism remains among experts regarding its actual combat effectiveness compared to more advanced missile systems.
