BRUSSELS — NATO faces a crucial week as the alliance grapples with uncertainty regarding the United States’ commitment to Ukraine and European security under President Donald Trump.
As Russia continues its advance in Ukraine, marking the third anniversary of its invasion, NATO prepares for key meetings that will influence the future of Western military and financial support for Kyiv, including the defense ministerial in Brussels and the Munich Security Conference.
“This is a critical week,” a senior NATO official told The Moscow Times on condition of anonymity. “By the end of this week, we may have a clearer picture of where the U.S. stands.”
Trump, known for his “predictable unpredictability” and transactional foreign policy, has raised concerns among Washington’s allies with his criticism of U.S. aid to Ukraine, his repeated territorial claims over Greenland and Canada, and his soft stance toward Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
With Trump just over three weeks into his new term, NATO leaders are closely monitoring his administration, seeking clarity on Washington’s approach to both its allies and adversaries.
The first major test will come Thursday when NATO defense ministers meet in Brussels for their first session with Trump’s new Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth.
Beyond Brussels, the Munich Security Conference will bring together top U.S. officials, including Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Trump’s special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg. The conference could either reassure NATO allies about continued U.S. support for Ukraine or signal that European members may need to take on more responsibility. Kellogg is expected to gather input from NATO allies on options for ending the war in Ukraine and present these options to Trump in the coming weeks, Bloomberg reported.
Trump’s Vice President JD Vance will meet with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday, following a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron at an AI summit in Paris.
“U.S. officials are shaping their views by consulting with allies and hearing from the Baltic states,” the senior NATO official said. “Kellogg is visiting multiple European capitals, and it’s too early to predict the outcome.”
While NATO members await detailed guidance from Washington, the U.S. has initiated intensive talks with Moscow. On Tuesday, Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, traveled to Russia to negotiate the release of Marc Fogel, an American teacher imprisoned in Russia since 2021. Trump described the release as “an important step” toward ending the war in Ukraine but did not provide further details.
The New York Times reported that Trump secretly tasked Witkoff with opening a negotiation channel with Moscow to explore options for ending the conflict. According to Fox News, Witkoff met with Putin for three hours in Moscow on Tuesday, though the Kremlin declined to comment on the meeting.
NATO officials have emphasized that any resolution must not come at the expense of Ukraine’s sovereignty.
“When President Trump calls for ending the war, we agree — but not at the cost of Ukraine’s independence,” the senior NATO official explained. “The goal is not to prolong the conflict but to end it without surrendering Ukraine.”
A European diplomat added, “The United States plays a crucial role in NATO, and while consultations with Moscow are ongoing, defending Ukraine remains our top priority.”
Meanwhile, Russia continues to push for a peace settlement that includes the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from territories partially occupied by Moscow and a commitment from Kyiv not to seek NATO membership.
Trump’s recent comments about potentially incorporating Greenland and Canada into the U.S. have also raised concerns among NATO allies. While discussions on Arctic security are expected between Washington and Copenhagen, Denmark remains firm on Greenland’s autonomy.
“In Denmark, most people oppose Greenland becoming part of the U.S., and more than 80% of Greenlanders reject such a move,” the NATO official said.
At the Munich conference, European leaders will engage with U.S. officials like Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Rubio to clarify Washington’s position.
“The U.S. is the backbone of NATO, with unparalleled military capabilities and a key player in deterrence and defense,” the NATO official noted. “U.S. policy on how to end the war and shape the peace process will be crucial.”
As this critical week unfolds, NATO allies are seeking answers on whether the U.S. will continue its support for Ukraine or if European members must step up to fill any potential gaps in U.S. priorities.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently urged members to adopt a “wartime mindset” to address long-term security threats posed by Russia, saying, “We are not prepared for what’s coming in four to five years.”
Despite these challenges, the senior NATO official expressed confidence in the alliance’s ability to weather political shifts and disagreements, as it has done throughout its 75-year history.
“We have faced significant political changes and disagreements in the past, but we have always managed to come together,” the official said. “That’s exactly what we need to do now.”
