The Russian ruble surged to its highest level in over eight months against the U.S. dollar on Monday, driven by optimism that upcoming talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin could pave the way for progress in ending the war in Ukraine and potentially improving relations between Washington and Moscow.
By midday in Moscow, the ruble had gained 1.16%, trading at 84.5 per dollar. In June 2024, Russia suspended trading in dollars and euros on the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) in response to U.S. sanctions. Since then, the Central Bank of Russia has determined the official ruble exchange rate—currently set at 85.57 per dollar—based on interbank transactions.
The ruble last traded at 85 per dollar on June 27 and July 25 of last year. After reaching its lowest point since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in November, the currency has rebounded significantly since January, gaining roughly 16% against the dollar. Analysts forecast continued volatility, with exchange rate predictions for 2025 ranging between 80 and 100 rubles per dollar, influenced by external factors.
Experts cited by the Vedomosti business newspaper on Monday forecast a short-term increase to 83.5 per dollar, followed by a potential decline to 100 per dollar later in the year.
Economics professor Yevgeny Kogan, from Moscow’s Higher School of Economics (HSE), predicted in a Telegram post, “Our new long-term reality is 90+ [rubles per dollar].”
Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the ruble traded at approximately 75-80 per dollar.
