According to a recently released survey by Gallup Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif has gained significant popularity in Punjab and is catching up with Imran Khan at the national level. The survey conducted in June and December of the previous year indicates a positive trend for Nawaz Sharif since his return to Pakistan.
At the national level, Nawaz Sharif’s popularity has increased from 36% in June 2023 to 52% in December 2023, while Imran Khan’s popularity has slightly declined from 60% to 57% during the same period. This suggests a shift in public sentiment towards Nawaz Sharif, with the perception that he has a better chance of forming the next government compared to Imran Khan.
In Punjab, which plays a crucial role in determining the future prime minister, Nawaz Sharif has outperformed Imran Khan. The December survey shows Nawaz Sharif’s popularity at 60%, whereas Imran Khan’s is at 53%. The third most popular leader in Punjab is Sirajul Haq of Jamaat-e-Islami with 36%, followed by Bilawal Bhutto at 34% and Saad Rizvi of Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan at 31%.
A national-level survey of leaders’ personal approval rates indicates a decline in popularity for most leaders, except for Nawaz Sharif, Maulana Fazlul Rehman, and Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui. Imran Khan’s rating decreased by 3%, Saad Rizvi’s by 10%, Bilawal Bhutto’s by 1%, and Jahangir Tareen’s by 3%.
The overall mood suggests a neck-and-neck competition between Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in Punjab if elections were held today. The 2% gap between the two parties is statistically insignificant, given that Punjab represents more than half of the National Assembly seats. In the 2018 elections, PTI secured 63 seats with 36% of the vote, while PML-N won 61 seats with 35% of the vote.
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), PTI’s approval has increased to 45% in 2024 from 37% in 2018. The survey also highlights potential challenges for PTI in certain regions due to alliances between Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazl (JUI-F) and PML-N in South KP and Hazara, which could impact PTI’s performance. Similarly, in Malakand, ANP and PPP hold influence that may affect PTI’s standing.
