Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump will not participate in what could have marked the first direct peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in three years, casting doubt on the likelihood of a significant breakthrough.
The meeting, set to take place in Istanbul on Thursday, was originally proposed by Putin without any preconditions. However, the Kremlin later announced that its delegation would be led by presidential adviser Vladimir Medinsky and Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin, with Putin notably absent.
Shortly after Russia’s delegation was confirmed, a U.S. official stated that Trump—currently touring the Middle East—would also not attend, despite previously suggesting he might.
While Putin never officially committed to attending, the absence of both leaders significantly lowers expectations for progress in resolving the conflict that began with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had publicly urged Putin to attend, framing it as a test of who is more committed to peace. Although Zelensky was en route to Turkey, a Ukrainian official indicated that he would only join the discussions if Putin was present.
In his nightly address on Wednesday, Zelensky emphasized that the key to understanding and ending the war lies in Moscow’s decisions.
Trump has pushed for a 30-day ceasefire as a starting point for peace, and a Russian lawmaker revealed that a large-scale prisoner swap might also be on the table.
While Zelensky supports the idea of an immediate ceasefire, Putin has maintained that such terms must first be negotiated in direct talks.
Frustrated by the slow progress, Trump has hinted at the possibility of imposing secondary sanctions on Moscow if he believes Russia is obstructing peace efforts. These could include financial penalties and restrictions on buyers of Russian oil.
The U.S. delegation in Turkey includes Secretary of State Marco Rubio, along with senior advisers Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha met with Rubio early Thursday to discuss Zelensky’s vision for peace and coordinate their approach.
The Russian delegation includes several high-ranking military and intelligence figures, many of whom also participated in earlier talks at the onset of the war. The last direct talks between the two countries were held in Istanbul in March 2022.
At that time, a draft agreement reportedly included Ukrainian neutrality in exchange for security guarantees from the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and several other nations. However, Kyiv has since made it clear that any deal requiring permanent neutrality remains unacceptable.
With Russian forces still making advances and now controlling roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory, Moscow has shown little willingness to offer concessions. In his recent peace proposal, Putin referenced the failed 2022 draft as a foundation for lasting peace, though Kyiv remains firmly opposed to such terms.
