Water Flow
India’s recent announcement to suspend the historic Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan has triggered widespread condemnation and renewed fears of a looming water crisis in South Asia.
The decision, which India claims is a response to the recent Pahalgam attack in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK), is being viewed by experts and international observers as a violation of international law and a dangerous precedent of water being weaponized for political retaliation.
Signed in 1960 under the auspices of the World Bank, the Indus Waters Treaty has long been a cornerstone of transboundary water cooperation between India and Pakistan, even surviving periods of intense conflict between the two nations. The treaty guarantees equitable water distribution of the Indus river system and is considered one of the most successful water-sharing agreements globally.
However, India’s abrupt move to suspend the treaty has sparked outrage and concern, not only in Pakistan but also in Bangladesh, which is watching the situation with growing unease. Bangladesh is particularly sensitive to India’s water policies, as the Ganges Water Sharing Agreement, signed in 1996 and set to expire in 2026, plays a vital role in regulating dry-season flows to Bangladesh.
Experts in Dhaka have warned that India’s disregard for the Indus treaty might signal similar unilateral action in the Ganges basin, especially as Bangladesh moves closer to China and Pakistan diplomatically following its recent elections.
Nitin Manmohan, a prominent water policy expert, noted that if India can suspend a treaty backed by international guarantees, its commitment to the Ganges agreement could also come into question. Utam Sinha from the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) emphasized that the renewal of the Ganges accord depends heavily on the prevailing political environment, further fueling uncertainty in Bangladesh.
The treaty’s Article XII specifies that it can only be renewed with mutual consent, meaning its extension in 2026 is far from guaranteed. In this context, the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is being interpreted by many as a strategic signal by India, with implications far beyond its bilateral dispute with Pakistan.
Adding to the regional tensions, Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar recently postponed a planned visit to Bangladesh, citing India’s aggressive posture and inflammatory rhetoric. Diplomatic engagements between Pakistan and Bangladesh, including recent meetings in Dhaka, underline a growing alignment aimed at countering India’s water dominance in the region.
Analysts argue that India’s move may be an attempt to deflect attention from its failures in occupied Kashmir and to suppress growing resistance. The claim that the Pahalgam attack justifies suspending the treaty lacks credible evidence, casting doubt on New Delhi’s motivations.
Pakistan has reaffirmed its commitment to the Indus Waters Treaty and has appealed to the United Nations, the World Bank, and other international institutions to intervene. Officials emphasize that water is a basic human right and must not be weaponized for political agendas.
Experts warn that India’s increasingly unilateral actions could provoke a broader water conflict in South Asia, especially if countries like China, Nepal, and Bangladesh coordinate to push back against New Delhi’s water policies. To counter India’s growing assertiveness, regional stakeholders are being urged to build a cooperative framework that ensures equitable and peaceful management of shared water resources.
